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ETF Core Strategies

Aim: To trend-trade general equity ETFs so as to ride rallies and buck busts in the Australian share market.

ETF Rotation Strategies

Aim: To back the local and foreign sector ETFs with the strongest price gains over both short and long terms.

Your Questions

Market timing is simply identifying when a market such as the stock exchange is attractive for investors and when it’s not. The first rule of share investing is to preserve your capital. That means stepping aside from the market when it’s undergoing a major correction, yet being in the market when it’s enjoying a sustained… Continue reading

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A special report on online trading in the Australian Financial Review (16.6.10) said market experts estimate that less than 20% of frequent traders break even while only about 5% can make a decent living. The rest lose money. That’s why we at MarketTiming urge you not to be a daily or swing trader focusing on… Continue reading

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There are three exchange traded funds (ETFs) suitable for timing the wider Australian share market. They are: State Street Global Advisers, Australia Services Ltd – SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Fund (ASX share code STW) Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd – Australian Shares Index Fund (code VAS) State Street Global Advisers, Australia Services Ltd – SPDR S&P/ ASX… Continue reading

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Essentially, MarketTiming offers two stock market timing strategies. These strategies are easiest to apply using exchange traded funds (i.e. shares such as STW and VAS that are managed funds which invest in the top 200 and 300 shares on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX)). As a subscriber, you can check out the current signals for each timing… Continue reading

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If you are in an industry or retail superannuation fund you will have a choice of investment styles to choose from. Typically they have names such as Defensive (which usually has 20% to 40% exposure to shares), Balanced (which as the name suggests may be anywhere between 40% and 60% invested in shares) and Growth… Continue reading

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As a subscriber, you can have MarketTiming’s buy and sell signals automatically applied to your share rotation strategy exchange traded funds by opening dual stock broking / cash management accounts with Vertical Financial Solutions Pty Limited, located at Level 11, 301 George Street Sydney NSW 2000. Vertical Financial Solutions Pty Limited is licensed to advise on… Continue reading

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First, decide whether you want to pursue a Conservative (average signal change every 6 months) strategy. Note that there can be large variations in the time duration between signal changes. For instance the Conservative Strategy typically has two signal changes a year, but in practice it can range from nil to seven signal changes per… Continue reading

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Empirical Evidence Modern market timing is an evidence based approach to managing equity market risk which stock and sector diversification does not address. It should not be confused with traditional market pattern recognition (e.g. head and shoulder formations, Elliot waves, Dow theory, Fibonacci numbers, etc) which has mixed outcomes. Market timing relies purely on reacting… Continue reading

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Absolutely. Indeed over the last decade the most successful share investors in America were those who timed their entry and exit from the market using signals produced by proven market timing models. TimerTrac which tracks the signals of market timers who have agreed to be audited shows that 80% of timers issuing ‘equity long only’… Continue reading

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Although we started in 2009, the modelling and technical indicators used to produce our signals incorporate the latest and best R&D in the US where professional market timing is well established and proven as a superior alternative to buy and hold in a volatile secular bear market as evident since the turn of the millenium.… Continue reading

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Using a proven medium to long-term trading system (called ‘market timing’ to distinguish it from daily or swing trading) based on non-discretionary indicators of market trend aims to significantly reduce volatility (i.e. market risk) while improving the reward to risk ratio of investing in Australian shares. Also using a widely diversified managed fund (e.g. an exchange… Continue reading

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No timing model is perfect, but a good timing strategy should pass two tests: firstly, they should have more winning than losing trades, and secondly, they should have average wins that exceed average losses. Each of our strategies meets these requirements based on past simulations of performance. For instance, over the 28 financial years to… Continue reading

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Our website service is very easy to use. MarketTiming offers a signaling strategy for the overall Australian stock market as measured by the ASX All Ordinaries Index – a Conservative Strategy for investors who are only interested in being alerted to the big rises or falls. We don’t offer an Aggressive strategy – short-term signals that… Continue reading

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Unlike share market tipsters, MarketTiming does not try to forecast share prices. Hulbert Financial Digest, which has been tracking the accuracy of all leading US stock and mutual fund newsletter services for more than two decades, has found that 80% of them cannot beat the market indices. The truth is that predicting the share market… Continue reading

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Until 2007, Australians had enjoyed 25 years of largely uninterrupted stock market growth. The worst crash in that period (1987) lasted only briefly leaving few investors scarred. As a result, market timing services were not necessary because buying and holding shares without regard to market fluctuations served the ordinary investor well. By contrast, since the… Continue reading

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In the US they do, but in Australia most are unfamiliar with it and in any case were trained to believe there was no alternative to buy and hold. Their mantra is that it's "time in the market" not "timing the market" that counts. Financial planners who are paid entry fees and trailing commissions by… Continue reading

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MarketTiming is not in the forecasting business. Instead we use a demonstrated market timing model to gauge when the Australian share market is buoyant (a ‘Buy’ signal) and when it’s sinking (a ‘Sell’ signal). However, the following observation by one of Australia’s leading market commentators is worth noting. If the share market for the next… Continue reading

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A bear market is a prolonged period of falling share prices as measured by a general market price index such as the Australian All Ordinaries index. Bear markets can be graded by their duration; secular, primary or secondary. A secular bear market lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of sequential primary… Continue reading

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For starters, an Australian market timer will be required to hold a current Australian Financial Services Licence. Being licensed means that MarketTiming meets stringent requirements in relation to staff training, organisational competence, management expertise, financial control and compliance disciplines. American timers are not subject to such requirements. Nevertheless, because the ASX seems to largely track… Continue reading

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One way to do so is to check whether they subject their signals to real time auditing by TimerTrac, an independent and objective market timer monitoring service. You can also check how they rank in TimerTrac’s league tables, but since American share indices are used as the benchmark the results are meaningless for market timers… Continue reading

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Books on market timing can be ordered online from Amazon.com (or any good bookseller) and basically fall into two categories. First are those that demonstrate that simple trading and market timing rules work. Sophisticated timing models are not normally disclosed or discussed because they are proprietary property. Examples of such works are: Tom Lydon, The Trend… Continue reading

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Market analysis is either ‘fundamental’ or ‘technical’ in nature. Fundamental analysis endeavors to predict the overall direction of the share market by focusing on the economic outlook, sentiment surveys, individual industry circumstances and political events. Those who monitor ‘fundamentals’ hope to predict the next change in market direction before that change is reflected in share prices. Technical analysis focuses… Continue reading

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The indicators that MarketTiming uses for its Conservative share strategies, and ETF Rotation strategy are trend-following, or lagging, indicators. To generate ‘Buy’ and ‘Sell’ signals for its share and rotation strategies MarketTiming uses a range of technical indicators, definitions for which are provided by www.investopedia.com. The selection and mix of indicators used for each strategy… Continue reading

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All performance results shown in tables and charts published by MarketTiming are calculated excluding both dividends received while in the market and interest received on cash balances when out of the market. The results are based on the ASX All Ordinaries Index, and assume that the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) vehicle used while in the… Continue reading

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